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Betting odds victorian state election

A by-election was held in the seat of Northcote on 18 November, in which the Victorian Greens won the seat from the Labor Party. Don Nardella , the former Deputy Speaker of the Assembly and member for the seat of Melton , resigned from the Labor Party on 7 March to sit as an independent.

The resignation reduced the number of Labor members in the Assembly from 47 to 46, still above the 45 seats needed for majority government to be formed. Nardella had previously announced his intention to quit politics at the election and following his resignation from the Labor Party stated he intended to serve out his full term as the member for Melton.

Russell Northe , the member for Morwell resigned from the National Party on 28 August , due to mental health and financial issues, continuing in his position as an independent. The following Mackerras Pendulum lists seats in the Legislative Assembly according to the percentage point margin on a two candidate preferred basis based on the election results.

At the close of nominations, there were 23 parties registered with the Victorian Electoral Commission VEC , of which 21 contested the election: [25]. Nominations of candidates opened on 31 October Nominations for party candidates closed on 8 November, and for independent candidates on 9 November. A total of candidates nominated for the election, down from at the election. There were candidates for the Legislative Assembly, the second-highest number on record, down from in The candidates for the Legislative Council was the highest number of upper house candidates in a Victorian election, up from in The Liberal Party also released a statement saying that Rai's nomination form for preselection had "failed to disclose a number of issues of relevance".

On 15 November, the Liberal Party withdrew its endorsement of Meralyn Klein, their candidate for the marginal seat of Yan Yean, after footage emerged of her speaking in an anti-Muslim video produced by the Australian Liberty Alliance.

Klein denied any association with the ALA, saying she had been interviewed about an incident where she had been assaulted several years earlier, and the footage had been provided to the ALA and edited into an anti-Muslim video. As ballot papers had already been printed, both Rai and Klein appeared as Liberal candidates. The Labor Party petitioned the Supreme Court to order the VEC to reprint the ballot papers with Klein's affiliation removed, [45] but the case was dismissed.

On 22 November, two days before Election Day, the Greens ordered a then-unnamed candidate to withdraw from the campaign after an allegation of "serious sexual misconduct" was made. On 28 October both Labor and the Coalition launched their campaigns, with Labor making health, paramedics and improved ambulance response times a priority, while the Coalition focused on cutting taxes, better managing population growth and cracking down on crime.

The Coalition's leading message of the campaign was to "get back in control" of the state's allegedly burgeoning crime problem. The party promised tougher bail conditions than Labor, saying that anyone who breaches bail will be jailed. In addition mandatory sentencing would become more commonplace, with minimum sentences for repeat violent offenders and people deemed possible terror threats could be forced to wear electronic monitoring devices , a proposal made after the stabbing attack in the city which occurred during the campaign.

Arguably the most pressing issue of the campaign was public transport and infrastructure. Melbourne 's record population growth of more than , people a year made both party leaders focus on big transport initiatives. The party proposed a dedicated bike "superlane" stretching 17 kilometres from Elsternwick railway station to Coburg , as well as further cycling routes connecting Box Hill and Richmond , Ringwood and Croydon and a connection from the Burwood Highway through to Knox and Deakin University.

Polling that is conducted by Newspoll and published in The Australian is conducted via random telephone number selection in city and country areas. Sampling sizes usually consist of over electors. In the lead-up to the election, Poll aggregation site Poll Bludger placed the two-party-preferred vote for Labor at The Liberal Party wrote in their campaign review that their data gathered in their internal research in marginal seats was "fundamentally wrong", which lead to resources and campaigners being diverted from marginal Liberal-held seats to "target "Labor" seats on the false assumption that "[the Liberal Party] had already won [Liberal held] seats".

From Wikipedia, the free encyclopedia. Election for the 59th Parliament of Victoria. The map on the left shows the first party preference by electorate. The map on the right shows the final two-party preferred vote result by electorate. See also: Results of the Victorian state election Legislative Assembly ; Members of the Victorian Legislative Assembly, — ; and Post-election pendulum for the Victorian state election.

Popular vote Labor. Two-party-preferred vote Labor. Seats Labor. Main article: Victorian state election. Main article: Candidates of the Victorian state election. Two-party-preferred vote. Primary vote. Aggregate data of voting intention from all opinion polling since the last election. A local regression trend is shown in a solid line.

ABC News. ABC Elections. Victorian Electoral Commission. Retrieved 14 December Australian Broadcasting Corporation. Retrieved 25 November The Age. The Sydney Morning Herald. Department of the Legislative Council. Parliament of Victoria. Retrieved 9 February December Retrieved 8 October Retrieved 28 September Retrieved 7 March Retrieved 28 August Retrieved 21 March Retrieved 20 February Retrieved 16 January Australian Electoral Commission.

Archived from the original on 9 January Retrieved 10 November Retrieved 19 August The Courier. Retrieved 15 September Retrieved 2 August Retrieved 26 August Retrieved 4 October SBS News. Herald Sun. Retrieved 21 September Retrieved 11 August Liberal Party. Seven News. Retrieved 10 February Star News Group. SBS Your Language. Retrieved 15 November Retrieved 14 November Retrieved 21 November Retrieved 22 November Retrieved 19 December The Guardian.

Australian Associated Press. The Mercury. October Retrieved 24 November Roy Morgan. The Australian. The Poll Bludger. Retrieved 19 November Retrieved 30 October Retrieved 26 June The Essential Report. Roy Morgan Research.

First preference votes if election was held today. Queensland electors narrowly turn down new election after Referendum on 4 year terms successful". Retrieved 17 October Retrieved 3 September Retrieved 10 August Retrieved 27 May Retrieved 21 April Retrieved 23 January Palaszczuk's Queensland Election victory reveals fresh 'gender split' in Queensland". Retrieved 4 April Retrieved 28 November A close election will be decided on minor party preferences". Retrieved 27 November Essential Research.

News Corp Australia. The Sunday Age. Retrieved 18 November Green Left Weekly. Financial Review. Sunday Herald Sun. Elections and referendums in Victoria. Politics of Australia. Pre Next by-elections referendums Timeline. Bjelkemander branch stacking casual vacancy caucus revolt champagne socialist contempt of Parliament despatch box donkey vote Dorothy Dixer double dissolution faceless men group voting ticket hardworking families how-to-vote card independent politicians Kirribilli agreement Langer vote leadership spill mortgage belt nationalism parliamentary secretary responsible government Stolen Generations working family worm.

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Namespaces Article Talk. Views Read Edit View history. Help Learn to edit Community portal Recent changes Upload file. Download as PDF Printable version. First party Second party Third party. Daniel Andrews. Matthew Guy. Samantha Ratnam. Liberal Coalition. MLC for Northern Metropolitan. Premier before election Daniel Andrews Labor. Premier after election Daniel Andrews Labor. Animal Justice. Shooters, Fishers and Farmers. Democratic Labour. Victorian Socialists. Transport Matters.

Sustainable Australia. Liberal Democratic. Aussie Battler. Liberty Alliance. Popular vote. Box Hill. Robert Clark. Mount Waverley. South Barwon. The margin given is his margin as a Nationals candidate in The margin here is the Greens margin at the election. Liberal metropolitan. Liberal regional. Voluntary Euthanasia. Health Australia. Hudson for Northern Victoria. Vote 1 Local Jobs.

Independents and ungrouped. Eastern Metropolitan. Northern Metropolitan. South-Eastern Metropolitan. Southern Metropolitan. Western Metropolitan. Paul Edbrooke. Sonya Kilkenny. Nick Staikos. Richard Wynne. Tim Richardson. Jane Garrett. Jude Perera. Vicki Ward. Albert Park. So Florida currently now has swung back in favor of Donald Trump. And you rely on Marketplace to be that objective, credible source, each and every day. Marketplace is sustained by our community of Investors—listeners, readers, and donors like you who believe that a free press is essential — and worth supporting.

Stand up for independent news—become a Marketplace Investor today with a donation in any amount. Skip to content. Business of Voting. Heard on:. Listen Now. Share Now on:. One bookmaker estimates bets placed in are more than double what was spent in Frederic J. Latest Updates : Business of Voting.

Stories You Might Like Consumer confidence shows wide partisan divide. Will Biden give the U. What the USC Daybreak poll got right and wrong about election predictions. How the election certification process works, and why it matters.

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State elections and the Electoral College vote happen at two separate times of the year. Betting lines can be found on both polls through online sportsbooks. Bettors simply need to visit an online internet sports betting site where they will be able to place bets on the outcomes of voting during the Presidential Election.

Electoral votes hold a lot of weight and sports betting sites have listed the USA election odds of each state's results. State election odds can be found at internet sports betting platforms. A user only needs to find the political category tab and click on it. Members can pick and choose the states they would like to bet on and which way they believe that state will vote. If interested gamblers are not yet members of such websites, this network will recommend the best sites to join.

After a simple sign up process, follow the above instructions to begin legally betting on state elections. Bettors must go online to bet on politics, as state-regulations generally prevent sportsbooks from offering betting lines on voting matters. Without the structure in place, the only legal place is online sites. Senate election odds are another sub-category of wagers listed within the political section of a sportsbook. There will be quite a few bets to choose from.

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The betting plunge came after a rumour that Treasurer Tim Pallas was "set to roll" the Premier spread across the state and to Canberra, including among leading business figures on Thursday night, which key Labor ministers dismissed as pure nonsense.

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Not only would the Greens fail to win a Senate seat if Labor persists with advising its supporters to preference the Derryn Hinch Justice Party, but Adam Bandt might face a battle to hold on to his seat of Melbourne. These data are at odds with anecdotal reports from those campaigning on the ground. Those reports suggest a different narrative, in which Labor sweeps through the aforementioned marginal Liberal seats, the Greens hold Melbourne and are competitive in Higgins and Kooyong, and independents win Indi and Mallee.

This looks like a case of science versus gut feeling, but it should be remembered that opinion polling indicated that the recent Victorian state election would also be a close affair. In fact, the result was a Labor landslide, and previously safe Liberal state seats like Hawthorn, Bass and Nepean were lost.

That would represent a gain of five seats. Read more: Are independents part of a 'green-left' conspiracy? New research finds they are more the 'sensible centre'. Newspoll currently has Queensland on a tie it was Herbert is the tightest with a 0. It took Labor 20 years to wrestle Herbert from the Liberal heartland of North Queensland, but any chance of the party benefiting from a sophomore surge seems slim.

Redistribution means more Herbert voters have moved into Dawson. Keep an eye on independent candidate, Lachlan Queenan, who could be a surprise challenger. The Dickson incumbent has been relatively quiet, making one media appearance in the marginal seat of Herbert. If Dutton loses, it will be more than a high profile scalp, it will signal a dramatic shift in the political landscape. Traditionally we rely on polls to gauge how the parties are faring, whether they are the big sample polls like Essential, Ipsos or Newspoll, or party-initiated polls and focus groups.

These polls map voting intentions, and these may or may not be accurate, because people do change their minds when confronted by a real ballot paper. Polls also rely on small samples, which can be unreliable when extrapolated to the electorate at large or even the country as a whole.

There is growing interest in betting markets as an additional indicator of election results. These markets are likely to factor in polls, insider information and local knowledge. Of interest are the odds at electorate level. As of May 16, the following odds are being offered in crucial NSW seats by one of the larger betting firms:. If the punters prove correct, the Coalition would pick up two seats in NSW one from Labor, and one from an independent , but lose two to independents and three to Labor the seat of Farrer is too close to call.

Since the Coalition began the campaign with a notional 73 seats, needing 76 for government, a net loss of seats in NSW would land the Coalition with the very difficult task of making up those losses in other states and territories.

Read more: Compare the pair: key policy offerings from Labor and the Coalition in the federal election. She made her feelings clear about what happened during the transition to a Morrison government in an interview with the Sunday Times a couple of weeks ago. She said she could have beaten Shorten , and that she was white-anted in her bid to replace Turnbull as PM.

But she continued to deny rumours that she had backed a difference candidate from the Conservative Christian who was pre-selected to run in Curtin, and that she had lost to Cormann in a power struggle over the seat. Her visit to an early polling station began with her getting some stick from voters. Stand up for independent news—become a Marketplace Investor today with a donation in any amount. Skip to content. Business of Voting. Heard on:. Listen Now. Share Now on:. One bookmaker estimates bets placed in are more than double what was spent in Frederic J.

Latest Updates : Business of Voting. Stories You Might Like Consumer confidence shows wide partisan divide. Will Biden give the U. What the USC Daybreak poll got right and wrong about election predictions. How the election certification process works, and why it matters. Pandemic economy, relief factor heavily in second Trump-Biden debate. News and information you need, from a source you trust. Also Included in.