An explanation of Maximum Security's KyDerby disqualification. A few adventurous Country House bettors cashed in, but the race served as another example of how the age of replay can affect not only sports results, but sports betting results. One of the all-time bad calls essentially cost the Saints a trip to the Super Bowl and resulted in an NFL rules change. The biggest win against the spread in college football history was also the biggest in historically black college football history, as the Bisons snubbed a massive spread to defeat the school representing the gambling capital of the United States.
Howard stuns UNLV, Howard's QB? Cam Newton's little brother, Caylin. Honorable mention: Louisiana-Monroe beats No. Virginia Tech was a dynamic program in the s, churning out wins and scores of NFL players. But in the last decade the Hokies were victimized by two high-profile upsets by FCS and equally painfully in-state schools.
In , No. The NHL came to Vegas in — and to legal sports betting, post-PASPA — despite the early protestations of commissioner Gary Bettman, and the result has been unabashedly a win for the city and its reputation. Mayweather-McGregor was a fascinating study on public and sharp money, but ultimately, the guy with the rightfully large opening line — Floyd Mayweather — did what he was supposed to do at a lesser number The most impactful boxing event of the decade and a huge boxing upset , therefore was Andy Ruiz Jr.
It was not supposed to happen. On May 14, , word began percolating through the cabal of New Jersey lawyers and politicians who prosecuted the pursuit of legal sports betting in their state that the battle was won. Former Gov. Chris Christie was called by Ted Olson, a lead lawyer on the eight-year travail.
Most of them promise fabulous returns of 70 or even 80 percent winners, as if the people who book NFL games were the biggest suckers in the world. Nothing could be further from the truth. Bookies love the NFL season. It provides them with their greatest profits in sports. The average bettor, on the other hand, despite all the touts and information, loses season after season.
Year after year, NFL bettors go into the season filled with confidence and end up losing. How can this happen? What pro handicappers know is that there is actually tremendous parity in the league, with not that much difference between the best player at a position and the worst. When a team of slightly worse players is more motivated than a team of slightly better players an outright upset is possible.
Second, the point spread tends to nullify any obvious scrimmage edge skill or power advantage a team has over its opponent. While the underdog won just 36 of these games outright Third, by betting an underdog, you have an important element of game strategy on your side. NFL teams do their best to win a game. Therefore, in the last few minutes of a game, a team that is leading seldom takes much risk to score more points.
Instead, it concentrates on hanging on to its lead. The team that is losing, on the other hand, usually tries to score until the bitter end. If a bettor has taken a favorite that is ahead but not covering with five minutes or less to go, that bettor is in trouble. In 20 years of handicapping the NFL, I have yet to come across a long-term winning bettor who does not bet mostly underdogs.
Every now and again, accusations of a fix even make it into respected books and magazines. First, over the past 25 years, I have known a number of handicappers, including myself, who have consistently won money betting the NFL. Second, in order to fix a game, two events would have to occur. The fixer would have to get important players involved, and be able to bet enough to overcome the payments he has made to the crooked players.
Over the last 15 years, NFL salaries have skyrocketed. Important players, who would have to be in on the fix for it to work, make well into the millions each season. They make even more from endorsements and advertisements.
It would cost a lot of money to get to such players. And you could never fix a game with one player alone; at least a few would have to bought. The fixer would then have to bet enough on the game to turn a profit on the deal.
In order to bet this big he would have to use hundreds or thousands of bookmakers. And bookmakers would definitely notice when they saw this tidal wave of money coming in on one team. As the money came in from all over the country, bookmakers would be in a race to lay off the money with other bookmakers. When huge money comes in from seemingly nowhere it is called unnatural money, and bookmakers are always suspicious about it.
With multiple millions suddenly coming in, suspicion would be rampant. When bookmakers see unnatural money, they take games off the board until they know the reason for it. And there is always a reasonable explanation. Sometimes a big name in betting likes the team.
Bookmakers, who themselves depend on accurate handicapping, know that the only way they can survive is for NFL games to be honest. Coups, such as the ones that have tarnished college basketball from time to time, could wipe them out. Bookmakers would be the first to turn in anyone who tried to fix a game. Believers in fixes also point to referees as possible culprits. Since referees make far less money than players and exert great control over games, this could be feasible except for two things.
First, the NFL does a very close background check on potential referees. Before anyone is allowed to ref NFL games, a lot of solid sources have to consider him bribe-proof. Second, sources in Las Vegas keep records on which referees work which games and correlate the data with any big money that comes in on a game.
If any suspicious correlation between a particular ref and unnatural money turned up, it would be reported immediately to the NFL. NFL analysts in the media have quick answers to all these questions. They have a listing of every player and his record at their fingertips. They have staff-written copy on hand to explain all types of game strategies. They have formidable arrays of statistics to cover any situation. Because of the media, pro football is a sport of virtually no hidden information. It is something else entirely to try to predict that which has yet to occur.
When the media try to predict game results, they tend to do poorly. In fact, virtually every year for the past 20 years the consensus in the Post has finished below 50 percent. One of the Post handicappers often mentions trends in his handicapping analysis—how teams do on grass or turf, as favorites or underdogs, etc.
But trends are mostly useless these days since teams change so quickly due to free agency. What does it matter if a team is and-4 on road turf over the last five years if only three of its players have been there that long? But they too have seldom picked the To cover this, they often talk about their records in relation to the. The vig seems not to exist in the world of WFAN. A tout is someone who gets paid to help a bettor make money betting the NFL. Some are legitimate handicappers.
An overwhelming majority are not.
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